Shohei Ohtani's extraordinary achievements are poised to leave an indelible mark on baseball for the next decade. Yet, his invaluable contribution to baseball aficionados also presents a transient enigma.
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What precisely is the worth of the most unparalleled two-way player in the annals of the sport when measured in the open market?
For the past couple of years, speculation, a dash of mathematical analysis, and abundant speculation have been the tools of the trade. Now, as Ohtani ventures into free agency, the speculative realm gives way to a tangible reality, possibly within the next month.
As we assess the myriad data points – Ohtani's pitching prowess, his hitting escapades, his considerable health challenges, and a challenging free-agent landscape with numerous teams vying for success in an expanded playoff scenario – it's time for contemplation on value.
So, let's begin at the pinnacle and unravel the equation backward: 10 years, $684 million.
Astounding, isn't it?
No, it's not a genuine expectation that Ohtani will command such an astronomical figure as his recruitment process gains momentum.
The figure merely amalgamates the largest free-agent contracts in baseball history for a position player (Aaron Judge, nine years, $360 million) and a pitcher (Gerrit Cole, nine years, $324 million).
The intriguing part lies in the frequent statistical comparisons to Ohtani involving both Judge and Cole, both recipients of substantial contracts from the New York Yankees over the past four offseasons.
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Despite the beneficial inflationary climate for free agents post-Cole's deal in December 2019, the practicality of Ohtani's dual brilliance prevents him from matching Cole's average of 33 starts per year since 2021.
Moreover, Ohtani hasn't surpassed 135 games in three of his five full MLB seasons, marked by a duo of elbow reconstruction surgeries. Yet, at 29, Ohtani shares the same age as Cole when he signed his deal, and a year younger than Judge when he set the position-player benchmark.
A challenging calculus, indeed.
We shall attempt once more to decipher this before the definitive resolution, as a fortunate and well-financed suitor prepares to acquire arguably the most extraordinary player in baseball history: Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani's prowess with the bat is notable, averaging 41 home runs over the past three seasons. The transition from Japan to MLB saw him initially curtailed by a blown ulnar collateral ligament just two months into his debut. Despite this setback, since 2018, Ohtani ranks 10th in MLB with 171 home runs and seventh with a .922 OPS.
The pivotal juncture for Ohtani came in the 60-game COVID-19 season, marking the completion of his progression from Tommy John surgery. Subsequently, his performance surged. Since 2021, Ohtani stands second in the majors in OPS, trailing only Judge. His 124 home runs rank fourth, and he holds the fourth position in adjusted OPS.
Crucially, among the top four in this stretch, Ohtani boasts the highest number of plate appearances, emphasizing his durability despite another UCL repair and a weekly pitch regimen.
While the power numbers come with a strikeout cost, Ohtani's identical strikeout rate to Judge highlights his offensive prowess. At 29, Ohtani led the league in triples in 2021 and stole 20 bases the following year, showcasing his diverse athleticism.
The comparison with Judge sets a baseline for Ohtani's offensive value.
On the pitching front, Ohtani has demonstrated remarkable dominance in both roles. Baseball-Reference's Wins Above Replacement ranks him 18th among position players and tied for fifth among pitchers since 2021, a testament to the scarcity of competent starting pitchers.
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Examining the top five pitchers in WAR, Ohtani's value is reflected in the context of elite arms in the game. However, he falls short in total innings pitched compared to Cole, the leader in this metric.
The intricacies of earned-run average also depict Ohtani's effectiveness, ranking sixth among starters with at least 300 innings over the past three years. Yet, the challenge lies in his fewer innings compared to Cole.
Ohtani's second UCL reconstruction poses a temporal challenge for his new team, restricting his pitching contributions until at least 2025. The success stories of multiple-time UCL surgery recipients like Nathan Eovaldi offer optimism, but the uncertainties linger, especially in a lengthy contract.
The evolving landscape of orthopedic innovations might offer safeguards against recurring UCL tears, yet this remains a significant concern for teams eyeing Ohtani.
Ohtani's distinctive role as a two-way player over the past six years prompts contemplation on potential adjustments to his routine. While his preferred routine, pitching once a week and serving as a designated hitter, has yielded success, the question arises whether flexibility might be introduced.
As teams vie for Ohtani's services, they could explore alternate usage scenarios beyond the confines of a strictly designated hitter role. The prospect of pitching less frequently and playing the field more could be considered, fostering flexibility for both Ohtani and his future team's roster.
In conclusion, assigning a definitive numerical value proves challenging, given the volatility of numerous factors influencing Ohtani's worth.
However, venturing into speculative territory, a proposed ten-year, $510 million contract could be a starting point.
This figure not only acknowledges the uncertainties of pitching responsibilities, marketing potential, and ticket sales but positions Ohtani as baseball's first $50 million man, redefining the benchmark for total value in North American sports contracts.
A considerable investment, perhaps, but one that secures years of credibility with the fan base and the services of an unparalleled player in his prime.
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